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Bear-er of Bad News? The Ripple Effect on Power Assets: Focussing on the power generation asset market, we are locating acquisition candidates at this point in the cycle. Published in March 2008, The Bear transaction provided a convenient reason to update our Marketplace / Distress Matrix. If you are a market participant,
please contact us for a copy.
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ERCOT All-In Pricing - Just Add Capacity: Extreme ERCOT real-time energy price spikes seem to indicate some deep issues, and are already leading to defaults. Offer caps were lifted as planned, there still is no capacity market, and energy prices are clearing well above the caps. Why? And what has this done to plant margins? This May 2008 Perspectives is available to market participants.
Please contact us.
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Wind Sector Margins: Catch a Tail Wind: Looking at the vibrant wind transaction market, we dissect the individual value components in this deal space. Published in September 2007, this short study combines some statistical analysis with insights from those deals we have been involved in. If you are a market participant,
please contact us for a copy.
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The Red Herring in the GHG Mix: Coal Generation: We are investigating the impact Greenhouse Gas related legislation would or will have on carbon intensive merchant generators and come to surprising conclusions after running our fundamental market model with aggressive carbon prices. This August 2007 study is available to market participants.
Please contact us.
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The Mystery Behind RPM: Focus on Supply Curves: PJM's new capacity mechanism is working, but pricing has been surprising to most market participants. We are looking at the fundamentals. This July, 2007 study is available to market participants.
Please contact us.
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Perspectives on Wind Generation Industry: Valuations, regulatory initiatives, players along the supply
cycle, transaction market, macroeconomic drivers, and the value creation at each stage of development of wind generation.
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Projection of Renewable Energy Credits: Projected REC’s in burgeoning market and correlated them to power
prices to project future revenue and financeability of a renewable business.
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Hourly Wind Profiles: Analyzed and profiled an off-shore wind farm’s future production using buoy data
and correlating it to wind speeds at various altitudes, as well as a power market price study.
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Microeconomic Demand Forecast: Analyzed the fundamental demand drivers for the PJM, NE-ISO, NY-ISO and
MISO to advise client on allocation of capital investment between centralized and on-site generation plant.
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Fuel Cell Components Manufacturer: Developed monetization strategy for a fuel cell components
manufacturer based on the current state of the financial markets, its product markets and the overall industry state of
maturity.
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Distributed Generation Feasibility for Utility Systems: Analyzed the application of distributed
generation facilities for the capital optimization in specific utility T&D upgrades.
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Counterparty Credit Risk: Analyzed the potential counterparty credit risk to a large power and
commodities purchaser under numerous financial and market scenarios and identified “signposts” for increased risks and
potential mitigation measures.
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Bankruptcy Assessment: Evaluated the then-current status of bankruptcy proceedings of a generation
business, assessed the likelihood of emergence based on both market/creditor sentiment and estimated debt-to-asset values and
estimated approximate timing of emergence.
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Distributed Generation Market Entry: Performed business and market analyses to determine how an energy
services company could best capitalize on its DG capabilities across a wide-range of geographic and product markets.
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